The MySpace article in the NYT is useful, but the chart (included below) is particularly illuminating. For all the talk (mine included) of Dotcom Booms, the underlying causes of technology cycles haven’t changed since the 1960s. All that’s happened is that Information Technology now represents a large fraction of the GDP instead of a small one. In the 1960s mainframe innovation drove the sector, in the 1970s mini-computers, in the 1980s PCs, and then the network took over from the hardware. In each cycle, the number of companies grows very quickly during the innovation surrounding a particular platform, followed by a period of rationalization and consolidation while the next platform is warming up.
That’s all that is happening now. We’ll only know the extent of the innovation when we have the perspective of time, but it seems that the innovation platform is the global, broadband Internet. As such, web sites born in the always-on, 300kb/s DSL era are taking market share from their predecessors. More than 20% of the Alexa’s Top 50 English language sites (excerpted below) hit their stride since the dotcom crash — and this boom/bubble/bust cycle is only getting going now. Alexa’s Global List is even more tilted towards newcomers, an early indication of how Bush’s FCC and its monopoly-friendly broadband policies are slowing US innovation.
5. Myspace
Social Networking Site.
www.myspace.com
10. Blogger.com
Free, automated weblog publishing tool that sends updates to a site via FTP.
www.blogger.com
22. Xanga
Personal publishing. Free weblogs.
www.xanga.com
23. Adult Friendfinder
Personal adverts with pictures and chat. [Membership]
www.adultfriendfinder.com
24. YouTube
YouTube is a way to get your videos to the people who matter to you. Upload, tag and share your videos worldwide!
www.youtube.com
28. Thefacebook
An online directory that connects people through social networks at colleges. FAQ, news coverage, schools covered, and terms of use.
www.facebook.com
30. Orkut.com
www.orkut.com
39. Hi5.com
www.hi5.com
40. Friendster
An online community that connects people through networks of friends for dating or making new friends.
www.friendster.com
42. Flickr
Picture galleries available with social networking, chat, groups, and photo ratings.
www.flickr.com
49. Photobucket image hosting and photo sharing
Provides image hosting for auctions, live journals, blogs, message boards, personal websites and online photo albums. Reliable, fast and very simple to use.
www.photobucket.com